Knowledge is Wisdom

US Trade Deficit; Problem for the World !

2006-02-12T12:37:00.000-08:00

US Trade deficit at $726 billion with 2 trillion dollars worth of imports, which by the way is bigger than the whole of Chinese economy. Consumer Spending is the key, when the whole world is saving, US people are spending like never before, with there saving rates lowest in decades.

Indian are saving 29% of there GDP and China is saving more than 40% of there GDP, where does these savings go ? Central banks of Asia buys US T bonds which has very less rate of interest, but since dollar is the vehicle currency and no other altenatives for save investment, central banks of Asia does not have much options.

India have Forex reserves of $ 145 billion and Chinese have $700 billion, mostly in T bonds.. But if the world does not the finance the US Deficit, dollar is bound to decline and thus the value of T bonds, which are nothing but a piece of paper !! ( What a waste for India and China )

Everything is mathematical and calculated but unfortunately if there is any sort of crisis, natural or man made, than the situation might change in a jiffy and would surly take the world into recession as dollar would decline, thusInterest rates would increase and as US has credit financed housing bubble, property rates would plummet, and thus consumer spending,which would reduce the imports and would create problem for developing countries like china as Chinese have over capacity in most of there manufacturing units and any world shock would result in mass level of unemployment in US and China.

Its High time for America to take tough measures before situation gets out of hand. If not for themselves than atleast for humanity !!

Revenge of colonies; Time has come !!

2006-02-09T13:00:00.000-08:00

Changes are part of life, as always been taught by all our teachers and parents but what is happening and probably would happen in next 2-3 decades would or might be called revenge of colonies. Confused ?? Don't be; Globalization or outsourcing sounds familiar even if you read newspaper once in a blue moon !! West likes free markets or atleast that's what they claim, but they are afraid of 2.3 billion Chinese and Indian, who would take away many of there jobs and without any war, it would be a great revenge for the colonies of Asia and the best part is that, we would be alive to see such a historic paradigm shift in the world history !! We would love it if we are Asian and hate if from the west, but will it happen and so soon ?

American think that China can only make Nikes and Adidas shoes and those colorful T shirts and Indian can take call in the night to troubleshoot there computer or file there Income tax claims or Indian engineer can do maintenance work only, but they are wrong as with time Indians and Chinese would move up the value chain and nobody would be able to stop them.

The Biggest problem with American is that they think there economy is knowledge driven and there country is center of gravity of the world, which infect was true in last 100 years but not anymore, America is a knowledge economy only in patches like silicon valley and Chicago with little favour of finance from wall street but what about the rest 95% land ? Based on subsidies and little productivity, who will save them ?? Mr Bush can't even save himself !! This is where India and china come into picture with close to 0.7 million engineers every year and ready to work 60 hours a week, on salaries that are 60-80% less, so the shift is evident. Who can stop it ? NOBODY !!

The Biggest advantage for India and china is there population, what a market !! 2.3 billion people in comparison with 280 million in USA. China and India does not even need to go crazy with foreign market, there own market is Huge and would create big companies in next 5-10 years with Mittel Steel and Lenovo just the tip of the iceberg !

Consumer Spending is the key to growth with American example as the case in point in last 100 years, American consume everything in such huge numbers be it cars,machines,shoes,cloths,software,games,steel..... and list goes on, but how long can 280 million compete with 2.3 billion.

Just think of the ever increasing number of middle class in these 2.3 billion souls, there consumer spending is rising everyyear and the shift is evident, just imagine and keep imagining ! ! Indeed what a revenge ; without bloodshed.

Iran : God help us !!

2006-02-04T13:14:00.000-08:00

If US made us believed that Iraq was dangerous, wait what will unfold in next few months, maybe next few years, but one thing is sure that world is in danger, unlike Iraq's WMD hoax but one thing is sure that Mr Bush and his adventures or world exploration might finally confront a insane president of Iran, Mr Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

How can one justify when the president of Iran claims that 12th Imam would return to the world in next 2-3 years provided there is crisis and its the duty of Mr Ahmadinejad to create one, if there is non. If the president of a nation believes that world is comming to an end with Imam comming and after 7 years, world would finish, than how safe is the world ? now the question is not if the imam who disappeared in 9th century is hidden and would return under any crises as believed by Mr Ahmadinejad, but the concern is that a nation is headed by a Pycho who is hellbound to have nuclear bomb, not to showcase power but to use it as soon as possible.

Now as this matter has been refereed to UN Security council after numerous round at IAEA and finally a consensus is been formed by all the veto powers, hence putting sanction would not be as difficult as probably it looked 3-4 weeks back. But will it solve the purpose? Does Iran really care what UN does ? If someone is remotely following this issue, would know that Iran has made the joke out of US and EU3 and would continue to do so as Mr Ahmadinejad comments on Israel or Imam or russia proposal suggest.

No matter what US does in next few months, the only option that would work, has to be a military option but it would not be easy to form a consensus with Middle east and the whole Arab world as they would like a diplomatic solution.

War is evident and inevitable, all US can do is delay it further, which might not be the right decision in the long run !!

Dragon or Elephant ? who will win !

2006-02-03T12:46:00.000-08:00

Whenever there are comparisons between the two raising economies China and India, there are many apprehension on both sides but what makes this a reality and not a bubble like Asian crisis or Japan property bubble is the advent of communication, be it the fiber optic cable for high speed connectivity or be it the telecommication which has made the whole world a small place.

Year 2006 is very different from say 1985 or 1990, when globalization was not rampant because there was no Internet or fast telecommunication, but look at it now, India being the back Office of the world, only and only because of the revolution in technology which has favored the English speaking people, thanks to colonization and probably the only good thing in Nehru Era was the stress on Education, which now has become the back bone of the growth. Indian economy is 53% dependent on services as are most of the developed societies ( US 80% Plus), but the big question is, what about the 60% of the Indian population engaged in Agricuture ?

China is totally different as its a dictatorship and thus its based on mass scale of production by forcing people to engage in factories, thus becoming the factory of the world. Manufacturing gives employment to more people than services and thus better standard of living to more people. Chinese economy is manufacturing based and Indian economy is services based, now the big question is ... Which one is more stable model for growth ?

India being a democratic country is a advantage, when it comes to long run, as many experts feel that as and when Chinese people enter in middle class, the next progression is always the demand for freedom and restricted Google will not help in the long run.

Another point is the export dependence of china, as its the manufacturing hub of the world and they export there cheap products but what happens if there is a slowdown in the world economy, which is quite likely with US trade crises and for how long will the world buy T-BONDS ? On the other hand India is not a export economy and infact its a services based economy where work is outsourced from the developed world and if the world economy slows down, they would need to cut cost and work on there productivity and what better way than to outsource non critical work to Indian engineers and BPO Brigade.

Can India or china replicate each others model, infact it is highly unlikely as Chinese will not be able to speak English as Indian can and Indian can't produce products like china because Indian bureaucracy and politics is too busy in making money for themselves, a peril of a third world democracy which has 40% illiterates.

Finally who will win the race ? Let time decide, as it could be possible that both succeed with there large middle class population or both turn out to be another failure , with china turning into a hostile military opponent of USA or maybe communism give way to democracy, with Bloodbath and Indian keep corruption and poor governance as there best friend, as they have done so far.

If Past was european, Present is American, Than FUTURE IS ASIAN( Indian or Chinese ?) OR Group of ASIAN Countries ?

History is not always history !

2005-11-07T12:07:00.000-08:00

Ever since we start studying, we develop a phobia towards few subjects which one finds difficult to understand, possibly because teacher are not interesting or subject itself is out of context. If there is a candid camera placed to reveal, in which subject student tends to take siesta than others, then possibly History would top that list across continents

Student always have a notion that past is not relevant and hence reject in there mind as irrelevant to there current context and teachers also by there boring style, make this subject equally torturous. History is always considered a past which should be taught to current generation, so as society does not make the same mistake as there ancestors did in there generations.

Infect history is nothing but story of few great men of the past and not about normal people and there lives, history is always about few great people who changed the course of mankind, by there determination and vision, be it Alexander the great who at the age of 33 become the undisputed King of half the know world at that point of time, by his sheer passion and obsession to be immortal and immortal he did become in our history books. History can never be of average people, or so to say, normal men but of few ordinary people with extraordinary courage to define greatness in there own terms and take a path which is never been traveled before in time, and that’s the greatness of the subject which should inspires people to think big and courage to make there own path even if chances of success for minimum, as they say, life is a journey , rather than just reaching the destination and thus history plays a pivotal role in recording deeds of achievers and doers and not of losers, which we have in apenty in every generations.

Globalization : The best would survive.

2005-11-02T03:05:00.000-08:00

World has been rapidly changing ; some say for the better and some say for the worse; only time would be the judge. With the advent of globalization and the whole world getting kited in a small web, there was hardly any time in human history as exciting as the next century. An organization is no more country specific but expertise specific and they go, where they get the best value for money.Dell has manufacturing units in US, Malaysia and china, as these markets provide cheap labor and automated systems, but there back office is in India, there captive call center in mohali and bangalore-india and not in china or Malaysia, Dell's marketing team is in Austin and there biggest add budget and there target market is US consumers( mostly) , WOW .. Companies like Microsoft, TI, Oracle sets there development centers in India, whereas Walmart, even Sony sets there manufacturing units in China.

So organization's are getting smarter and smarter; cutting cost by any way possible, be it outsourcing or offshoring , the end result is better bottomlines and margins. But the question is, DO these MNC's have a choice ? They might just packup if they don't follow the basic rules of competitiveness and globalization, which has changed the rules of Business forever.

There are plethora of reason, like Fall of communism,Internet and telecommication, dot com bubble which resulted in cheap fibre optic lines and as a result cheaper and much cheaper internet and communication from US to Asia, outsourcing and possibly many other which resulted in world; Becoming a Global village,in last 20 years, with idea following from one place to another irrespective of country, caste or religion.

Now, what matters is performance and not nationality, organization would go to that market which offers them; Value for money . EX- cars are made in south Korea\Japan than just Detroit, software are made in Bangalore than just silicon valley, movies are made in Mumbai than just LA, Taiwan makes the design of many semi conductors and than they are made in China and not Taiwan, so things are changing like never before and Darwin theory is much more relevant ; Survival of the Fittest... But little modification in 21st century and we have ' SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST NATION AND ITS PEOPLE'.

Age of Google and Apple; Sony and Yahoo are passe

2005-10-24T11:07:00.000-07:00

If there are organisations which are making the waves higher then hurricane and tsunami , then the palpable choice would be Apple computer with Ipods selling like hot cakes and google with search engine and contentious Google earth. These companies have re written the rules of success like nobody ever did, Apple which, at one point of time was nothing but a dead duck has changed the perception of people and there bottomline with there Ipods which has become ubiquitous. google on other hand has become generic term for search, with 37% market share and easily the most dominant player.

When Sony came with Walkmen, it bought probably the most innovative musical device of recent past and was expected to be the leader in innovation, but it was not meant to be, with Apple coming with Ipods and not Sony ! When Google come in, Yahoo was the dominant player in the market but it changed too quickly for the liking of Yahoo and to some extent MSN.

Now the big question is, will MSN, Yahoo or Sony would be able to regain there lost glory ? or will we see a New Google or apple . Innovation in product line and little risk taking is all it takes !! Best of LUCK Guys :)

Two greatest inventions of last 2 decades !

2005-10-15T13:35:00.000-07:00

Over centuries, invention and discoveries have a habit of surprising mankind, comming out with some thing so unique and imaginative, which people never thought existed. Some inventions have such a huge consequences on people, which as a end result, change the very structure of the society and there behavior.

Two things which have changed the middle class world over is INTERNET and MOBILE PHONE, which never existed some 15 years ago,but now man can't exist without them. Mobile phones has changed the way people communicate, and thus have a direct impact on human relationship, be it with your friends,parents, clients. People now have better ways to stay in touch with there near and dear ones, which was difficult in pre historic, non communicative world.

Internet has made this world so accessible, that a person living in Nigeria can find out, more about climate,taste, fashion, restaurants, maps,In things in NYC, than probably a non geek New Yorker. One can find just about everything on there fingertips, which was so unrealistic , just 15-20 years back... We all remember our childhoods without mobile and internet, almost everyone !

Long live this revolution of communication and information.

Bird flu : are we prepared ?

2005-10-14T12:34:00.000-07:00

Year 2005; will do down in the history books, as one of the worst years in recent past with natural disasters as well as man made blunders. Never in the history, one would find a year with disasters as massive as tsunami which resulted in death toll of 0.3 million people, Hurricane katrina which made new Orleans more of swimming pool with death bodies rather than a habitable city and last but not the least is the south Asia earthquake, which has taken more than 30000 lives so far with no respite in place. If reports in world media are anything to go by, which is offcourse is the avian flu, then we are in big crisis, an pandemic which has the capability to wipe 50 million soul from this planet.

So far only 100 cases have been reported mainly in china and Vietnam, with 60 already on there deathbed. With recent reports from Romania and turkey, spread of the virus looks evident and with no clear relief in sight. This virus is not mutated from human to human,(only bird-bird and rare bird-human) but if this equation changes, then this pandemic would be the most dangerous of its kind, probably on the lines of 1918-Spanish flu which took away more than 20 million of our ancestors.

Are we prepared for another disaster, 4th one of the Year 2005 ?

Double standards : USA and Co

2005-10-07T10:35:00.000-07:00

US and Europe have been in discussion with World bank, regarding the waiver of $50 billion debt to Africa , which poor countries can't return anyway and the whole issue is made out to be such a hyped occasion by the media, as if West is doing some great social work. West had committed to paying 0.7% of there GDP for AID relief to poor countries, but as illusion are quite far from reality, US denotes around .016% of there GDP, after thinking twice.

Now many people would like to debate that it is not the responsibility of west to make sure people get there basic needs, when US itself is under great fiscal deficit of around 6% of the GDP.If US expense on arms and ammunition is calculated, its around 47% of the world, which in absolute terms is whopping $600 billion dollars and add the agriculture subsidy provided to the farmers which is $342 billion , the number is close to $1 trillion, 10% of the US GDP.

Its a clear indication where all the dollars are going: Arms and ammunition , but not to Africa where people are dying from poverty and starvation; Is any one listening ?

China dominance : Advantage world.

2005-09-29T09:57:00.000-07:00

US has enjoyed unipolar authority in the world politics, for quite some time now, with soviet union being the last challenger in 80's and Japan comming close during the same period but was never a threat. As they say, change is the essence of life, change is what china is bringing to the world economy and politics.

China being the manufacturing hub of the world and readily becoming the power house, with GDP of 1.5 trillion and growing at 9% per annum and creating so much buzz in the world, that even a alien would be aware of cheap Chinese labor implications, they are having on US and EU. But the problem for the US, does not end at cheap labor and shift of manufacturing bases to east coast of china, infact the problem starts with economic prosperity in Asia as china is taking more proactive rule in international affairs, like recent negotiations with North Korea in the six nation talks, there dealing with mynamar which is mineral rich and strategic location in south Asia, zimbabwe; ally which has become poorer faster than one can read this article because of Mr Robert mugabe and Iran;another ally which is more concerned about there prestige and ego on nuclear issue than economic prosperity of there people ,and recently china has voted against US in IAEA vote for pushing the Iran issue to security council ,which has increased the ever widening rift between US and china.

Now the question one has to ask; Is world a safer place with unipolar USA or Bipolar USA and china , or possibly Multipolar USA,china, India and Russia. In last 20 years USA has tried there best to be the guardian of the world, with Venezuela,Cuba,Vietnam,Iraq,Niger,Chad just a few from the long list of forced democracies or to be precise US led puppets for vested interest like Oil and other mineral. Future policies of US would be made with China in mind, which will probably make this world a safer place to live !

Life the American way !

2005-09-27T09:13:00.000-07:00

World has always been fascinated by the way people in US look, they talk, the way they dress even if its Chinese) , there culture and not to forget the freedom people enjoy is the envy to the world. Since the time US got its independence in 1776, there society has been based on equality and justice which are the pillar stone of any democracy. A trip down the history lane does have incidents which are not pleasant, be it the war of independence in 18th century or the civil was in 1860's which was fought on the basis of skin colour.

After the civil war and as a result of 2nd industrial revolution during 1850-1920 which gave human civilization the power of oil, combustion engine and Thomas Edison's bulb, catapulted the US on the worldstage as the superpower. After the world war, come the cold war with soviet union; insatiable hunger for military supremacy which come to a tame end with demise of soviet union in 1991. Vietnam war in 1970's, took life of many innocent people from bothsides and now the so called war against terroism against Iraq, which is costing around $30 billion a month and has already taken more than 1600 american life so far and sadly with no end in sight.

So, with so much happening on the international diplomacy and war front, Mr bush was very busy, in what he does the best ; Vacation in Crawford on his ranch, with typical cowboy style. The stark images which the world saw of new Orleans and gulf coast, made Mr cowboy realize that he had to do something, and sure he did.. Only after 4 days. The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina will go down in history as one of the worst abandonments of Americans on American soil ever. People can't just believe that it was possible in the land of dreams, probably it was a illusion which got shattered at the right time.

Now we can all comprehend;what if levees would have be higher, what if they had not broken, what if govenment has spent less on Iraq and more on infrastructure, what if new Orleans was white dominated and not black, what if 50000 people had vehicle after the warning, what if home department had planned for buses.... These things don't even happen in developing countries with Mumbai rains and tsunami in Asia are the recent case in points where there was not a single case of looting, not a single case of government being accused for not helping the needy people; Indeed life the american way !!

Live life king size

2005-09-25T11:05:00.000-07:00

Across the world we have different people in terms of culture, beliefs, colour and many other feature which make each and every soul unique among 6 billion plus and increasing every second but one thing which is common among all the people irrespective of anything is a man's quest to feel important.

All the action we perform are directly or indirectly related to just one core thing, feeling important in other persons eye, feeling appreciated is the single biggest driver of any action we undertake. Its starts from the time we are born, our parents wants us to go to best school, and do well, yes they love us and care for us but if we do well it makes them feel as if they were responsible and thus feeling of proud and importance in other people eyes. Its very natural, perfectly normal and just, we want to earn lots of money, that house near the sea.. and don't forget that great car..ohh did we say.. length of the car matters.. yes it does and we all want to look good, don't we see ourself in the mirror and admire, atleast sometimes... maybe always and how we want to be great in bed and yes, how we all love hearing someone saying how good we are.... we love that , probably the greatest feeling , and I am hopeful we all agree.

Criticism is the most dreaded word in dictionary, how we don't go to that happening party and what about that happening restaurant because we feel we might be criticized, because we are overweight, people would laugh at us, we might be the hot topic of conversation, and what about that small pimple on our face, the biggest problem in the whole world for us , at that point of time and if we stammer or we are bald, its feels like we are the biggest sinners in the world, and we do lie about these small things, just to avoid our embarrassment, and with every step in this direction lead us to even deeper inferiority complex, which we do not deserve.

God help those who help themselves, says it all.. Its the summary of life in nutshell. We have just one life, just one shot to play this game call life and we should give all we have. Question we should all ask is when we meet god and he says " Son what did you do on earth" and if our reply is " God, ask me what I did not,' then we have lived otherwise the journey was not worth the distance.

All we carry in life is our experience of overcoming obstacle and our attitude in our struggles , and how about that day when we looked up in sky and smiled, said " life is tough but I am ready" and when this life is over and out, rather than our looks or that house we bought from our lifelong saving and those college degrees... We would just remember how we fought those battles which we waged in our mind and how we come on top.

Dragan effect- China

2005-09-25T01:54:00.000-07:00

Once considered as backward and irrrevelant economy, China today is the king as they dominate from everything one gets in the market, from wearing those T-shirts ,to those fancy shoes, watches, toys , infact you name it and chinese can produce it. They sell $11 billion worth of cloths to US alone, and are changing the life of people in the west, just like japan did till 1990.

The Big question is the future, is it here to stay or the bubble will burst as it did for japan, which was labelled as the successor of US. China story has many similar facts and figures as the japanese sucess story had, but china has one advantage which japan never had, the experiance which they ought to have learned from japanese debacle.

China is primarly a export driven economy, with FDI of around $60 billion this year, and undervalued Yuan is always welcomed, which makes there goods and services cheaper in relation to other compitetors and thus US has no option but to buy from china and hence as a result : A whopping trade deficit of $170 billion, and yes you have guessed it right, China has pile and pile of US doller, yes its $700 billion which china can use to buy US MNC, with IBM PC division bought by Lenovo, Maytag and CNOOC are other example, which again you must have guessed is just the starting , but chinese are not buying left, right and center unlike Japan which were in the similar situation 20 years ago.

China has the opputunity to control the world economy by 2020, which japanese also had at one point of time in history, answer lies in proper managment and focussed growth but as they say with very pros, there are bound to be cons as well, japan was a democratic nation when they had the world under them, China is communist and history is with US as there is not even one example of a communist nation which is able to compete with democarcy in the long run.

Everything in china looks great from outside but when you look deep under, a great Revolution is in the making , as with money flowing in the middle class, the next logical step is freedom.... divide between coastal east and poor west china is increasing by the second, with new generation being born in the era of globalization, ideas are flowing, people want to live on there own and not with some dictators deciding what they eat and how they behave, how long can communist hold on ........

Debt relief for Africa : Temporary solution

2005-09-22T12:13:00.000-07:00

World bank wants $40 billion debt relief for the 18 african countries in its efforts to meet its Millennium development goals of removing poverty by halve of 1990 levels by 2015. There are around 1 billion people in asia and africa who live in less than $1 a day in camparison of 37 million in USA.

Africa itself has population of 900 million, in which about 300 million people are below the povery line, which makes people in developed socities believe that waiver of debt ($40 billion)would be a big step in eradication of poverty. If past is anything to go by, with corrupt official and irresponsible governments which are there just to enjoy the doller sent by west and bear no responsibility for its citizen, hope is getting dimmer and dimmer by the day.

Unless the issue of proper utilisation of econimic Aids is not looked upon, dollers would keep getting deposited in the Swiss bank accounts of corrupt officials and so called elected representative of people in rigged elections which make a mockery out of democracy. West should create proper accountability and channels of distribution of money should be transparent, with proper audits should be conducted by world bank.

Its high time african corrupt politician should realize that west would be there for them, but there interest would be high only till the time they have oil flowing from the Oil reserves of Nigeria, chad etc. As and when west lose Economic interest in africa, these corrupt official and politician would realize that those swiss bank account would not last forever and development by way of education, health and eradication AIDS would have been the best way forward and probably it would be to late for Dark Africa to live on.....

North korea : Chicken or Egg case

2005-09-22T04:08:00.000-07:00

September 19 is a historic day, as 2 years of talks has finally resulted in a positive response from Kim jong in a fierce 6 nation talk comprising of north and south korea, USA, Russia, China, Japan. Pyongyong has finally allowed inspector to visit north korea in return for energy supplies and guarantees from USA and allies that there would not be any attack on the communist nation.

Now its a typical case of who come first : chicken or Egg case. Pyongyang wants the energy suppiles and guarantees first before they dismantle the Nuclear weapons and abandon there other nuclear activities but US wants it other way around as the past record of Kim jong is not very impressive and would take a lot from US side to trust the communist leader. Yes, its a great news that talk of 2 years have resulted in a step forward, but its just the starting in this long drawn diplomatic battle as implimentation might not be that easy.

Beijing and washington would need to see this battle thru till the very end, for safer eastern asia and safer world.

US : IRAQ Invasion proving costly

2005-09-22T03:29:00.000-07:00

US of A wanted to make this world a save place by gaining control over the middle east oil reserves and hence unilateral power in the world but reality is quite different. In the world where energy is the most important aspect in the nations development it becomes highly imperative that US is able to control and regulate its energy requirment and thus become independent in the world energy market. Iraq had the production of around 2.5 million barrels of oil per day in 2001 when US decided it was the right time to invade Iraq on the pretext of WMD and had hoped to double the capacity of oil when US was in control and the most important aspect was the US thought process of supporting its war bill from increased oil production, but destiny had something else instore for Jr bush.

Iraq knew the intention and thus the insurgent in iraq conducted 230 major attacks on Iraq oil Infrastucture , causing billion of dollers of loses for the US Government. Infact with not many troops to control Iraq, US tried to control the Oil pipelines across the region which offcourse they failed as Insurgent knew more about the Oil Infrastructure than the US, resulting in the current oil production of only 1.9 billion barrels per day in 2005 .

US dreams of financing the war bill from oil, never come true with Kurdish,sunnis and shi'ite fighting for the oil revenue distribution and Insurgent making sure, US do not benefit even if Iraq is doomed for life by distroying the Oil reserves forever.

Israel and palestine : Gaza Pullout

2005-09-14T02:43:00.000-07:00

Recent pullout of Israel from the disputed land of Gaza has raised hopes of solving this imbroglio which is probably the oldest the mankind has know starting way before christ and become quite intense after 1967 Arab war. Its not just about the piece of land called Gaza and West bank but much more than that , namely about religion and beliefs which are the main value system on which we live and interact.

When PM sharon decided to evacuate the Gaza strip which had 17 settlement and 4 in westbank , it come as stock to few and surprise to many as PM had advocated absolutely different idea just few years back, by asking people to settle in Gaza by way of tax incentive and now the same Arial Sharon had laid down the Evacuation plan with September being the deadline.

Why would Arial Sharon betrayed his own people or did he had any other choice with mounting pressure and economic compulsions ? Israel is the only non Arabic country in middle east, sharing border with Egpyt,Jorden,Syria which are all Islamic countries. Pressure from arabic countries on disputed land of gaza and westbank which israel acquired in 1967 war was one of the reason but the most important was the economics of controlling Gaza as Israel had 20% land but only 9000 people, which was getting tough to provide security and keeping the disputed land safe from hamas-militant group.

Population of palestine is incresing but jews population is getting stagnant and this equation of power might change in near future if jews do not increase in numbers.

Oil crisis : Future

2005-09-14T02:00:00.000-07:00

It has effected us all, whether we drive a car or fly to our dream destination for holidays, infact there is hardly any Industry or Organisation which is not feeling the blant of this crisis. Its not that prices of Crude oil has increased for the first time, it happened for the first time in 1973 when there was OPEC embargo , oil crisis happened again in 1979 Iranian revolution and again in 1991 when iraq invaded Oil rich Kuwait. Common among all the three oil stocks were the supply problem, and not the demand issue which is the reason for the current oil problem.

Prices of gasoline touching $3 per gallaon is no joke and the big question is if these prices are for short period or something we would need to live for rest of our life. there are many theories going around explaining the reason and offcourse the time duration of this Problem. Since Interest rate have been low because of monetary compulsion across the world, people are demanding more as they have cheaper source of finance and this has resulted in housing bubble in US and incresed demand for Oil across the world but with increase demand and high prices of oil, Inflation should also be high but that is not the case because of the Dragon economy.

China is able to produce low cost goods to deveopled socities and as a result is a big factor in not pushing the inflation and thus the world in global recession which happend as a result of previous oil shocks. Yes there are bottleneck from the supply side with Middle east refineries running at full capacities and it would be some time before the capacities can be incresed so the high oil prices are here to stay as for the first time its because of more demand rather than deficiant supply.

Everyone in the world knows that oil is not here beyond 60-70 years but with no urgency to develop altenate energy resouce probably this oil stock would become the catayst which was needed to some drastic steps in altenate resourses and offcourse in the short run better supply managment from OPEC.